Gold’s rally since February has largely been fueled by a combination of safe haven plays and talk of Central Bank demand as inflation expectations pointed to an upcoming easing. Two months later we see the yellow metal at historic highs though unable to hold Friday’s pop higher for a long wick in daily charts.
Resistance
- 2400.71 – Minor: intraday consolidation resistance
- 2382.30 – Minor: intraday breakout point
- 2365.81 – Minor: intraday consolidation resistance
Support
- 2344.76 – Minor: Today’s Low
- 2325.91 – Moderate: 23.6 Fib Retracement of 2/14 rally
- 2303.02 – Minor: intraday support/resistance
Absent any US participation it is unlikely that we will see Israel escalating its tit for tat with Iran to the point of an attack on the homeland. Inflation as well has remained persistently above most central banks target and Friday gave us hints of exhaustion in our rally. At this point our bias calls for a test of the 2325 level the 23.6 Fibonacci Retracement of our rally from February 14. Any downside however will likely be limited given on going tensions, as such we will look for base building around the said Fib retracement as we wait for the next push up. A daily close below 2325 will see us calling for a deeper pullback.
