The relative size of yesterday’s candle underscores the potential creation of a gap on policy rates between the US and New Zealand. The flat retail sales creates pressure for the Fed to consider easing sooner, note though that while the monthly CPI was less than forecast at 0.3% annualized numbers were inline with the consensus at 3.4%, still far from the Feds comfort point. This suggest we are unlikely to see any actual change soon.
Resistance
- 0.62110 – Daily Range Play Highs
- 0.61829 – Daily Highs
- 0.61481 – Previous Daily Consolidation Resistance
Support
- 0.60826 – April 10 High
- 0.60413 – Previous Daily Consolidation Resistance
- 0.60073 – 50D Moving Average
NZDUSD saw a sharp rally following the break of a nearly two week consolidation. Immediate resistance are the highs of a range play from January to February. Among indicators we have stochastic in overbought areas in multiple time frames. With a strong resistance ahead and a big spike up our preference will be to llok for clues before committing. We will consider buys on a push past 0.61481, other wise look for a consolidation around the resistance to suggest distribution and consider shorts on a bullish engulfing.
