The latest US retail sales report underscores the resilience of consumer spending, which has crucial implications for the broader economy and monetary policy. Despite the dollar’s recent weakness and concerns about aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the June retail sales data provides a reassuring outlook. Key Takeaways: Stability in Retail Sales Retail sales…
The upcoming week in financial markets is expected to be dynamic, with significant economic data releases and geopolitical events likely to drive market movements. The USD saw a notable decline following a lower-than-expected inflation report, boosting the odds of a Fed rate cut in September. Meanwhile, political instability in France and a crucial ECB meeting…
Much like the rest of the majors, Euro also capitalized on the growing rate cut story for the US though failing to push past the highs from June. At this point it appears that people are forgetting that its was the ECB that started the latest easing cycle and are looking for the US Fed…
The British Pound remains one of the biggest beneficiaries on changing perceptions over US inflation and rates managing to see two year highs against the US Dollar and Euro. Note we will be seeing the next critical data for the US Tuesday with Retail Sales on the line and should we see weak numbers likely…
The idea of an easy monetary policy in the US continues to drive sentiment for gold with the latest CPI from the US at 3.0% annualized against a 3.1% consensus and the headline month-on-month rate contracting at -0.1%. With the PBoC absent from the market however we have doubts on the idea of pushing historical…
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June showed a notable decrease of 0.1% from May, bringing the annual rate to 3%. This is the lowest level in over three years. Excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, the core CPI rose by 0.1% monthly and 3.3% annually, the smallest increase since April 2021. A…
We started the week with a big sell-off in oil, retreating down to the consolidation floor of late June. Seasonal cycles however suggests oil as a buy on any dip to a good support given the on going US driving season. Underscoring this is the drop in Crude Oil prices by 3.4 million barrels as…
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently testified before the Senate Banking Committee, highlighting key aspects of the current economic landscape and the implications for future monetary policy. His testimony provided insights into the Fed’s approach to managing interest rates, inflation, and overall economic health. Implications for the Fed Funds Rate: Assessment of the Economic Situation:…
The British Pound has been one of the major beneficiaries of the perceived turn on sentiment by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell from last week. In the span of a week the currency has seen almost the full range of price action from June, coming up just a little bit short of the high for the…
Much like the rest of the majors the Euro has been buoyant against the dollar since a dovish sounding Fed Powell the prior week. Brain trusts have been widely speculative since withe the more extreme coming from a Citibank analyst calling for 8 rate cuts in succession. For today we have another appearance from Mr….