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The latest US retail sales report underscores the resilience of consumer spending, which has crucial implications for the broader economy and monetary policy. Despite the dollar’s recent weakness and concerns about aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the June retail sales data provides a reassuring outlook. Key Takeaways: Stability in Retail Sales Retail sales…
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June showed a notable decrease of 0.1% from May, bringing the annual rate to 3%. This is the lowest level in over three years. Excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, the core CPI rose by 0.1% monthly and 3.3% annually, the smallest increase since April 2021. A…
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently testified before the Senate Banking Committee, highlighting key aspects of the current economic landscape and the implications for future monetary policy. His testimony provided insights into the Fed’s approach to managing interest rates, inflation, and overall economic health. Implications for the Fed Funds Rate: Assessment of the Economic Situation:…
Euro’s consolidation continue amidst an absence of ground breaking news for either side. It may take something at the level of Thursday’s US Final GDP figures, consensus forecast at 1.4%, along with with a good read in the weekly claimant count to jogged things off the range play. Note that our bias is for an…
The Bank of England’s decision to maintain interest rates at 5.25% in its latest meeting came as no surprise, especially in light of the recent CPI data that confirmed inflation has eased back to the central bank’s target of 2%. This outcome aligns closely with expectations, as the market had largely priced in the likelihood…
The latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data presented mixed signals, with some figures below expectations, potentially altering the trajectory of Federal Reserve policy. Here’s a breakdown of the report and its implications: Implications for Federal Reserve Policy: Given these figures, the softer-than-expected inflation data could influence the Federal Reserve’s rate path, particularly if viewed…
The recent US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for May delivered a strong surprise to markets, showcasing robust job growth and an unexpected rise in wages, factors that have significant implications for both monetary policy and market dynamics. Here’s a breakdown of the key points and their broader impacts: Employment Growth and Wage Dynamics Market Reactions…
As traders wake up to a quieter trading day on May 27, they are reminded that both the United States and the United Kingdom are observing public holidays—Memorial Day and the Spring Bank Holiday, respectively. These holidays not only bring a pause to the hustle and bustle of daily life but also cast a significant…
The Federal Reserve’s April meeting minutes revealed a persistent unease among Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members regarding the stubbornly high inflation rates, casting doubts on the anticipated easing of the policy rates anytime soon. Despite previous easing trends, inflation remains resilient, challenging the Committee’s 2% target. Key Highlights from the FOMC Minutes: Market Implications…
In its latest monetary policy decision, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has opted to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.5%, citing persistent inflationary pressures that have slowed the anticipated decline in domestic inflation. This decision aligns with the bank’s cautious stance amid an uncertain economic environment, despite the easing capacity pressures…