Capitalizing on fresh signs of a shift to a dovish stance in US monetary policy the Euro manage to see a follow through breakout Wednesday closing in on the highs for the year. Further stoking dollar bears is the latest beige book report indicating 5 of the 12 Fed districts are reporting flat or declining…
Much like the rest of the majors, Euro also capitalized on the growing rate cut story for the US though failing to push past the highs from June. At this point it appears that people are forgetting that its was the ECB that started the latest easing cycle and are looking for the US Fed…
Much like the rest of the majors the Euro has been buoyant against the dollar since a dovish sounding Fed Powell the prior week. Brain trusts have been widely speculative since withe the more extreme coming from a Citibank analyst calling for 8 rate cuts in succession. For today we have another appearance from Mr….
Right Wing politics appears to be good for the Euro with opening gaps against the rest majors Monday. Note elections in France saw Marie Le Pen’s far right National Rally headed for a slight majority suggesting French centered and anti-immigration politics, this appears to be inline with the growing strength of the right across Europe….
Euro’s consolidation continue amidst an absence of ground breaking news for either side. It may take something at the level of Thursday’s US Final GDP figures, consensus forecast at 1.4%, along with with a good read in the weekly claimant count to jogged things off the range play. Note that our bias is for an…
Euro saw an indecisive trading Tuesday with a tight whipsaw in EURUSD waiting for fresh catalyst. With the US market out on a holiday and little to move thighs from the Eurozone we expect to see the indecision to continue though we are keeping a bearish overall bias given the widening rate differential. Calendar wise…
Euro initially tried to rally in response to another weak inflation metric from the US though the reaction proved to be short lived eventually giving up gains to see a big sell-off by the close. Our inability to hold gains following the Wednesday rally suggests a focus on the divergence between US and the Eurozone…
With an FOMC rate decision and economic projects due Wednesday, traders will be closely looking on rate differential issues. Already the ECB has started its own easing cycle with last weaks 25bps cut though none committal on when the next move will be. On the other side speculations call for the Fed to reduce the…
The ECB was none committal about further rate cuts following its move to cut rates Thursday, the first time in 5 years. The US jobs data meanwhile suggested wage inflation, an expanding labor force, and jobs, elements which are likely to deter the Fed from taking action on rates anytime soon. Given this it could…
Today’s key event for financial markets will be the ECB’s Monetary Policy Statement and Interest Rate decision at 1215GMT. The move to cut rates by 25bps has largely been telegraphed with the Main Refinancing Rate seen easing to 4.25%. Among the currencies we note that there appears to have been little pricing in of the…