We have long been a fan of the carry trade but after a month of steady gains it is worth reassessing considering the next set of policy meetings beginning next week on Thursday for the ECB. Note that there is increasing expectation of a move by the ECB this time around which with the three…
Was it the charts or is it the news? What ever the underlying reason for yesterdays marubozu one thing thats clear is Euro’s upside is now likely capped. At a time when people keep speculating on when rate cuts will start what we know is the FOMC dynamics has shifted to a latter than sooner…
Bitcoin has been unable to find fresh wind ever since poor US data fueled the surge to 71911. News wise crypto in general continues to see market cap expand though the failure to push any higher in the grand daddy of crypto suggests two things, much of the fresh money is coming from the retail…
Brent Crude closed just under its May range play ceiling and is currently consolidating just above the region. With the upcoming driving season our bias for oil moving forward is for further upside. Though moving past the years highs will be unlikely without any further catalyst. Note that beyond cyclical factors demand for oil remains…
Cable has been riding the wave of reassessment over rate cut speculations following last Wednesdays stronger than expected CPI read at 2.3%. This was reinforced by signs of a recovery in manufacturing with the Flash PMI at 51.3 above the 50 neutral point. From expectations of a rate cut in June market is now pricing…
Gold saw a sharp sell-off following the release of the US FOMC minutes suggesting a shift in bias among its member and more delays in US easing. The sharp drop to us suggests that despite the talk of demand from Central Banks for the yellow metal, the latest surge is not about hedging against inflation…
Euro managed to pick up Friday after spending the past week on a steady decline. The move strangely comes as US Durable Goods came in stronger than consensus and a dearth of Eurozone data. Ahead is another quiet day for Eurozone economic data though we look at CB Consumer Confidence in the US as a…
With the two regional, Ukraine and Israel-Gaza, not having much of an impact in the logistics chain for the moment, oil prices are about monetary policy and how it affects demand. Hopes for rate cuts have recently been dashed in both the UK and more importantly the US with persistent inflation pressures while China, the…
A stronger than expected read in UK CPI at 2.3% against a 2.1% consensus from 3.2% previously saw Cable pop up. From pricing in a rate cut in June market has had to consider the possibility of none action leading to the move up that eventually faltered. News across the pond suggests the Fed will…
The FOMC’s minutes from its previous meeting shocked many in the market as it hinted higher rates are here to stay despite the weakness seen in recent US numbers. This is a reminder to the market that the Fed’s primary concern is inflation. Unless the economy were at the brink of a recession weak data…