Market players were largely caught off guard with how the dollar responded to a weak read in US ISM Manufacturing numbers, falling short of consensus at 48.5 against hopes of an improvement to 49.2, a contraction still yet less so. For today we have little of note coming out of the UK with market players…
The British Pound was mostly weaker against the rest of the majors with the exclusion of the Yen as market players look for every excuse to argue an August rate cut and more. Though largely seen as second liner data the Confederation of British Industries Realized Sales figure came out sharply lower, contracting instead of…
The British Pound sold off Thursday following the BoE MPC decision to keep rates steady and signalling a rate cut in the next meeting, in August. With the Bank of England largely seen ahead of the Fed in the easing cycle bias for the currency will remain on the sell side as we have clearly…
Today’s CPI release from the UK is seeing more interest than usual as the consensus forecast calls for the figure to fall back into the target of 2.0%. Should we get things as expected then it would suggest that expectations of a rate cut in August will push through. Fail to push to zero and…
The Bank of England is largely expected to keep rates steady in its MPC meeting Thursday with expectations largely calling for a rate cut only in August. Current expectations aside however the latest CPI figures will likely provide guidance for the market, consensus forecast calls for a return to the target rate of 2.0%, failure…
The British Pound was a big gainer on the knee-jerk response to weaker than expected US CPI. However the Fed was clear about its stance on the need for more data and market is speculating about a mere single rate cut for 2024 by the US should labor markets remain robust and inflation persistent. In…
Pounds attempt to takeout the floor of its nearly monthly long consolidation proved short lived with GBPUSD recouping its losses for the day in US trading. With an FOMC meeting tomorrow and a BoE rate decision on the 20th we are skeptical about prospects for any change in the equilibrium levels. Note however that Fed…
With recent UK data suggesting cooling in the jobs market, Friday’s blowout figure in NFP and stronger than expected wage data suggests a close look will be needed for the British Pound. With the ECB already taking its first rate cut the past week, divergence between US and UK monetary policy will likely be taking…
Cable saw a modest bounce Thursday following its sharp sell-off on hawkish talk for the US the day prior. We have little to watch out for out of the UK today though US Personal Consumption Expenditure data is worth keeping an eye on given that it is actually the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation given…
Cable has been riding the wave of reassessment over rate cut speculations following last Wednesdays stronger than expected CPI read at 2.3%. This was reinforced by signs of a recovery in manufacturing with the Flash PMI at 51.3 above the 50 neutral point. From expectations of a rate cut in June market is now pricing…
