Seasonal factors will likely be the main driver for oil over the next month or two, i.e. US driving season providing real demand for black gold. That said we will not discount the potential effects of monetary policy to this picture as an upcoming easing cycle may just convince people there will be good time…
Oil prices has seen a quick ascent from its lows at the start of the month as people begin to price in increased demand with the upcoming US driving season. Note too that production levels until 2025 has largely been broadcast by the OPEC as such focus now will be on actual use of the…
At this point markets more or less know where OPEC stands with regard to production and the question for us is the demand side. With the US driving season already here we should expect demand to pick up at the very least proving a good floor for prices. Throw in speculations over the impact of…
Oil prices are looking interesting following the response to the FOMC and the earlier softness in US inflation. Essentially the charts are telling us a near term high backed by the idea of a longer tight monetary policy environment for the US. That said we are entering the US driving season when seasonal cycles dictate…
Oil saw a sharp rally Monday though we are unable to put a finger on the actual cause. Two things coming up for oil is today’s Monthly Report from OPEC which could clarify supply and demand expectations from the Cartel’s perspective. Meanwhile a clearer source of demand would be the upcoming US driving season which…
Oil prices rarely stay at the bottom whenever they see a sharp sell-off. Given a few days to digest to OPEC+ statement on keeping production levels as they are people are now concluding that Saudi Arabia will be unlikely to boost its own production as the loop holes over OPEC member commitments provided. While the…
Just when we thought Oil was beginning to price in the summer driving season in the US the brief push past its May consolidation highs was reversed as it spent the rest of the previous week easing. By the close Friday we actually had a bearish candle for May. Over the weekend we had an…
Brent Crude closed just under its May range play ceiling and is currently consolidating just above the region. With the upcoming driving season our bias for oil moving forward is for further upside. Though moving past the years highs will be unlikely without any further catalyst. Note that beyond cyclical factors demand for oil remains…
With the two regional, Ukraine and Israel-Gaza, not having much of an impact in the logistics chain for the moment, oil prices are about monetary policy and how it affects demand. Hopes for rate cuts have recently been dashed in both the UK and more importantly the US with persistent inflation pressures while China, the…
We have little in the way of a catalyst for oil at the moment with no actual rate cuts happening to potentially spur demand. Though supply side news if more of a curiosity as Russia latest oil find in the Antarctic is not something that could easily be developed. Though overall if things were to…
