With an FOMC rate decision and economic projects due Wednesday, traders will be closely looking on rate differential issues. Already the ECB has started its own easing cycle with last weaks 25bps cut though none committal on when the next move will be. On the other side speculations call for the Fed to reduce the…
Pounds attempt to takeout the floor of its nearly monthly long consolidation proved short lived with GBPUSD recouping its losses for the day in US trading. With an FOMC meeting tomorrow and a BoE rate decision on the 20th we are skeptical about prospects for any change in the equilibrium levels. Note however that Fed…
Oil saw a sharp rally Monday though we are unable to put a finger on the actual cause. Two things coming up for oil is today’s Monthly Report from OPEC which could clarify supply and demand expectations from the Cartel’s perspective. Meanwhile a clearer source of demand would be the upcoming US driving season which…
Already easing an hour before US Jobs data Friday, Gold may have defined a medium term high with the SHS break out from Friday as the premise for its move to historic levels may be over. Note that Gold has rallied from the 1600 levels in September 2022 largely as a hedge to inflation and…
The ECB was none committal about further rate cuts following its move to cut rates Thursday, the first time in 5 years. The US jobs data meanwhile suggested wage inflation, an expanding labor force, and jobs, elements which are likely to deter the Fed from taking action on rates anytime soon. Given this it could…
Bitcoin saw a limited response to the US Jobs data though the conclusion of a delay in the US easing eventually saw it drop near the close. At this point we find it curious that major wall street firms are reporting huge inflows in their new bitcoin ETFs yet we are not really seeing new…
Having seen a pullback to the 50D Moving Average we could argue that previous carry trades have already been cleared for USDJPY with prospects of a change in the rate differentials nil for the near future. With hourly earnings up 0.4% from 0.2% previously and the May Non-farm Payrolls hugely surprising on the upside to…
With recent UK data suggesting cooling in the jobs market, Friday’s blowout figure in NFP and stronger than expected wage data suggests a close look will be needed for the British Pound. With the ECB already taking its first rate cut the past week, divergence between US and UK monetary policy will likely be taking…
Oil prices rarely stay at the bottom whenever they see a sharp sell-off. Given a few days to digest to OPEC+ statement on keeping production levels as they are people are now concluding that Saudi Arabia will be unlikely to boost its own production as the loop holes over OPEC member commitments provided. While the…
Gold saw early demand from Asia, retreated then jumped back up again on the back of the ECB’s decision to cut rates. This could be a chicken or egg question but this mostly underscores the role of Gold as a hedge for inflation. The logic being lower interest rates could boost consumption that leads to…