Today’s key event for financial markets will be the ECB’s Monetary Policy Statement and Interest Rate decision at 1215GMT. The move to cut rates by 25bps has largely been telegraphed with the Main Refinancing Rate seen easing to 4.25%. Among the currencies we note that there appears to have been little pricing in of the rate cut suggesting vulnerability for the Euro.
Resistance
- 1.09426 – March 21 High
- 1.09160 – Tuesday’s High
- 1.08881 – Intraday Consolidation Resistance
Support
- 1.08544 – Yesterday’s Low
- 1.08094 – Intraday High / Low
- 1.07778 – 50D Moving Average
EURUSD failed to see a follow through to its bullish breakout from Monday, and has eased back under the May consolidation highs. Though there are no clear bearish reversal patterns we now have the daily stochastic with a bearish cross. With an expected rate cut from the ECB today our bias will be to look at selling EURUSD either on the break of yesterday’s low, 1.08544 on should we see prices around 1.08881 and long wicks in the hourly chart. We will hold-off on taking the beside unless we get some form of surprise from the ECB which could see us going Tuesday’s High 1.09160.
